ملف:Risks and Impacts of Global Warming.png

من ويكيبيديا، الموسوعة الحرة

Risks_and_Impacts_of_Global_Warming.png ‏(200 × 211 بكسل حجم الملف: 34 كيلوبايت، نوع MIME: image/png)

Description[عدل]

Predicted changes in average surface temperature according to a range of global climate models using an SRES emissions scenario.

The figure above, adapted from the Third Assessment Report of the اللجنة الدولية للتغيرات المناخية (IPCC),[1] presents a conceptual assessment of the relative impact and risks associated with global warming across five "reasons for concern" (Smith et al., 2001:957-959):[2]

  • Unique and threatened systems: These include tropical glaciers, coral reefs, mangroves, and biodiversity "hot spots."
  • Frequency and severity of extreme climate events: Examples of extreme events include floods, tropical storms, and fires.
  • Global distribution and balance of impacts: This reflects the concern that the distribution of climate change impacts will be uneven across the peoples of the world.
  • Total economic and ecological impact:
    • With medium confidence, Smith et al. (2001:958) concluded that a small increase in global average temperature (up to 2 °C by 2100, measured against 1990 levels) would result in an aggregate (i.e., total impacts across all regions) market sector impact of plus or minus a few percent of world GDP. Most studies assessed by Smith et al. (2001) predicted net damages beyond a medium temperature increase, with further damages for greater (more than 3 °C) temperature rises.
    • An alternative metric is the number of people affected by climate change. The quality of estimates using this metric are poor (Smith et al., 2001:941, 942).
  • Risk of irreversible large-scale and abrupt transitions: Projected climate changes during the 21st century have the potential to lead to future large-scale and possibly irreversible changes in Earth systems resulting in impacts at continential and global scales (IPCC, 2001:6).[3] Examples include significant slowing of the ocean circulation that transports warm water to the North Atlantic, large reductions in the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheets, and accelerated global warming. The likelihood of many of these changes in Earth systems is not well-known, but is probably very low.

The period 1850-1990 warmed by 0.6 °C and led to some impacts (Smith et al., 2001:959). The left part of the figure shows a range of projections for future global mean temperature increase relative to 1990 levels. These projections were made using climate models under several different GHG emission scenarios. The colored bars of the figure indicate the risks of adverse climate impacts for each reason for concern. White indicates neutral or small negative or positive impacts or risks, yellow indicates negative impacts for some systems or low risks, and red means negative impacts or risks that are more widespread and/or greater in magnitude (IPCC, 2001:5).

The figure uses global mean temperature as a proxy for the magnitude of future climate change. Other factors that will affect future climate change impacts include:

  • the rate of global climate change and regional climate changes
  • changes in future social and economic conditions
  • future adaptation to climate change

مراجع[عدل]

  1. ^ IPCC (2001). "Figure SPM-2. In: Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [J.J. McCarthy et al. Eds.]". GRID-Arendal. اطلع عليه بتاريخ 2010-01-10.
  2. ^ Smith, J.B.؛ وآخرون (2001). "Vulnerability to Climate Change and Reasons for Concern: A Synthesis. In: Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [J.J. McCarthy et al. Eds.]". Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A. اطلع عليه بتاريخ 2010-01-10. {{استشهاد ويب}}: Explicit use of et al. in: |مؤلف= (مساعدة)
  3. ^ IPCC (2001). "Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [J.J. McCarthy et al. Eds.]". Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A. اطلع عليه بتاريخ 2010-01-10.

Copyright[عدل]

The bars and basic structure of this image is attributed to IPCC, constitutes one of the central conclusions of their work, and are represented in the manner they considered appropriate for conveying their conclusions. It is believed that the use this material in the present adaptation in Wikipedia to inform and educate about the risks associated with global warming constitutes a fair use under United States copyright law. The current presentation of this material was prepared by Robert A. Rohde as part of the Global Warming Art project. Any unique elements associated with this adaptation are licensed under the Global Warming Art license described below.

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حالي19:23، 17 يونيو 2017تصغير للنسخة بتاريخ 19:23، 17 يونيو 2017200 × 211 (34 كيلوبايت)JarBot (نقاش | مساهمات)حجم الاستخدام
11:19، 10 فبراير 2011تصغير للنسخة بتاريخ 11:19، 10 فبراير 2011650 × 686 (56 كيلوبايت)عباد ديرانية (نقاش | مساهمات)== Description == thumb|right|300px|Predicted changes in average surface temperature according to a range of [[global climate models using an SRES emissions [[Economics of

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